Why are we talking about megatrends today? Because no matter where you are, the real megatrend will surely engulf everyone on the planet and reconstruct a series of intricate relationships between countries and cities, as well as businesses and consumers. Facing the future, we have the following ten judgments on major trends.
Sensors and the Internet of Things will make the world completely connected. By 2020, there will be an average of 5 connected devices per user, and an average of 10 connected devices per household, and we will see 80 billion connected devices on the market. More importantly, we will see more than 5 billion Internet users in the world.
The penetration of high-speed Internet facilities is also accelerating. For example, Colombia has made access to the Internet a basic human right, which is determined by the government. One reason is that the government has realized that obtaining information through the Internet can truly empower the people.
➤ Sub-trend 1: Internet equipment
There are many opportunities to produce products and services that allow people to access the Internet faster, more convenient, and at a lower cost, whether it is access to platforms or access services.
➤ Second trend: 5G network and real-time services
What does 5G network mean to us? The data uplink and downlink speed will reach 1GB per second, and the data latency will drop below 1 millisecond. This means that we can access high-speed Internet very stably.
There is a more intuitive analogy. Now we use 4G to download high-definition movies. It usually takes an hour. If it is faster, it will take tens of minutes to complete the download. But if you use 5G data services, it can be downloaded in 5-6 seconds.
Due to the high-speed and stable characteristics of 5G networks, we can expect the emergence of some real-time services.
For example, in the future of medical care, we don't need to go to the hospital to see a doctor in person, and we can access medical services directly online 7*24 hours, and have direct consultations with doctors in different countries and regions.
➤ Sub-trend 3: Communication satellites and space congestion
At present, there are 800 aviation satellites orbiting the earth, and their main function is to provide meteorological information and some communication services for their respective countries.
However, with people's need for rich data acquisition, in the next 10 years, we predict that thousands of communication satellites will be launched, and there may even be satellite congestion in space.
The United States, China, India, Japan and other developed countries in satellite technology bear the brunt and will become providers of communications satellites.
➤ Sub-trend 4: Virtual office environment
The future work environment will become more and more flexible. On-demand meeting venues and virtual meeting systems will become more and more popular. If you can provide high-quality voice calls, video calls, video conferencing and other interactive platforms, there will be a very good prospect.
➤ Sub-trend 5: Robots
We believe that in the next 5-10 years, everyone here will have the opportunity to own a robot. These robots will become assistants in our lives, waking us up every day and helping us prepare clothes and coffee.
In fact, in the Japanese retail industry, we have already seen successful cases of robotic services. If you go to the Japanese mobile phone service provider Softbank (SOFTBANK) to apply for a mobile phone, the whole process from consulting-choosing a phone-signing-mobile phone delivery-leaving the store is completed by the machine, and there is no human interaction in the whole process. .
➤ Sub-trend 6: Big Data
With the ubiquitous Internet of Things and sensors, data flooding will follow. Faced with the flood of data, how to clean and analyze becomes more important.
Big data has many outputs and applications, such as predictive analysis, assisting business decision-making, or as a dynamic pricing tool (such as the insurance industry. If your driving record is good, your car insurance costs will be lowered) , If you are a crazy driver, your premium will be increased a lot), but the most important step is to get through the important link from "data analysis" to "meaningful business decisions".
➤ Sub-trend 7: Artificial Intelligence
The data flooding was mentioned earlier. So when we find and retrieve the required data, we will encounter difficulties in obtaining effective data.
Then the future AI search engine can help us solve this problem. By setting some conditions, formats, and structures we need, it can collect data on the Internet through AI algorithms, and finally present the data to you in the format and structure you need you.
This means that in the future, industry research and information consulting services will also be disrupted.
Trend 2: physical and e-commerceMore and more companies have realized online and offline connections, such as the automotive industry. We usually think of 4S stores for car sales, but now they are turning online.
For example, Audi has an unmanned showroom in London. Customers can see and experience the latest car models in the showroom, understand relevant parameters, make purchase decisions and place orders in the store, but there is no human intervention in the whole process. of.
And Tesla. In the United States, Tesla completely bypasses the dealer network to sell cars. You can place an order online and purchase auto insurance to achieve fast car delivery through logistics.
Trend 3: City is the customerIn the future, cities will become very important customers of business.
We see a phenomenon in the world, Mega City (Mega City) is rapidly forming. Cities such as Beijing, Tokyo, New York, and London, although they are already very large, are still getting bigger and bigger. But in this process, the city consumes a lot of energy, and the infrastructure construction cannot keep up.
➤ Sub-trend 1: Urban infrastructure transformation
Siemens, ABB and Cisco have all realized this. In order to better participate in urban construction and development, they have reorganized and transformed their business model and layout.
For example, Siemens integrates the resources of its own group's automation control, power, construction and other departments, and integrates them in a framework called infrastructure and cities, and designs overall solutions around the mega-city problem we just mentioned. .
➤ Second trend: urban safety
The bigger the city, the higher the hidden danger. How can the security department predict crimes and catch the bad guys before they happen?
Some biometric fingerprints, facial recognition and iris scanning technologies will become very important auxiliary means, allowing the security department to quickly and accurately identify the good and the bad.
Trend 4: Social Development TrendWe need to have a deeper understanding of different social groups (age, income, gender, etc.).
In India, young people make up a larger proportion of the population, and we need to design products and services for young people more. In Japan, on the contrary, the products and services of the elderly in Japan will be more in demand.
In addition, women's influence and decision-making power will become stronger and stronger. We have seen a lot of women enter positions of power. For example, in politics, we see that the top leaders in some developed countries are women.
Therefore, this trend requires that when designing products, we should not regard men as the default gender, but design products and services more from the perspective of women.
The auto industry, including Ford and BMW, Chrysler, Audi and other automakers, has begun to develop women's models. In the future, many other products and services will see the same trend.
Trend 5: Beyond the BRICsWhen talking about economic growth in the past, we first thought of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Now the situation is changing: the economies of the four countries have slowed down to varying degrees.
Growth is occurring in other emerging economies. In Africa, we see Nigeria, Turkey and Egypt. In the Asia-Pacific, we see Vietnam and Indonesia. These countries are becoming new drivers of the economy.
In fact, China has already participated in the investment and development of emerging economies. There are many Chinese investment projects in Africa and the Middle East. If you want to participate in the development of the future economy, I believe you can find an easier way.
Trend 6: Innovation to zeroWith innovative to zero thinking, you can start designing products and solutions well.
What is innovation to zero? It means zero emission, zero failure, zero waste, and zero pollution. If you can come up with a product solution to the Beijing government that can achieve zero waste or zero pollution, I guarantee that you can get the order right away.
Trend 7: New business model: Provide value for more peopleIn terms of business model innovation, we see several themes, such as personalization, co-creation, co-development and so on.
personalise. In the past, we used a one-to-one or one-to-many model for personalized services. Now, the many-to-many model can also be customized and personalized, and it can also achieve scale benefits with commercial operations. The best way to do many-to-many is Alibaba. On its platform, any user can purchase raw materials and products from any supplier.
Create together. Chinese Xiaomi has done a good job at this point. Today you can submit your suggestions for future Xiaomi products on the Xiaomi website. Once adopted, you will be rewarded by the company.
If we look at the proportion of global innovation investment, we can see that 75% of the funds flow to incremental innovations such as product innovation, process innovation, and delivery model innovation, such as making products faster, better, and more colorful. But these are not true innovations.
Only the remaining 15% is really used for strategy and business model innovation. Moreover, the investment in entrepreneurial model innovation is often higher than the return on investment in product innovation.
Trend 8: Well-being and welfareWhether in developed or developing countries, medical costs are rising day by day. The government has spent a lot of money to provide medical services and protection for the people.
In the future, we will not only provide treatment services after the onset of illness, we will also do preventive and predictive diagnosis and treatment before the onset of illness. Some smart wearable devices can be used to encourage people to form good habits and prevent the occurrence of some chronic diseases in advance.
Trend 9: The future of energyIn the next 5-10 years, we will see a large-scale energy revolution, and traditional power companies will experience complete subversion.
In the future, each of us will have the dual identities of electricity consumers and generators. Tesla has established a power plant in the United States. The research direction of this plant is to use some advanced energy storage equipment to make every family a potential energy provider. The electricity produced by the family can not only meet the needs of each household, You can also sell excess electricity to the country to realize income. Buildings will not only become more energy-efficient, they can also become energy harvesters. The current centralized power generation will become increasingly decentralized.
At the same time, new battery technologies are emerging.
Trend 10: The future of automobilesAs the population density is very dense in big cities, travel traffic will become an indicator of city quality. In a big city like Beijing, everyone should have a deep understanding that buying, driving, parking, and car maintenance are all very heavy burdens. In the future, there will be multiple solutions for urban intelligent transportation.
One of the most important is the popularity of autonomous vehicles. Especially in the United States, we predict that in the very near future, autonomous vehicles based on remote information technology will appear in our daily lives.
Why do we need to understand these megatrends?
Whether you are in entrepreneurial mode or working in a large company, you need to know:
How will people consume products and services in the future?
What needs do not exist now, but will appear in the future?
We call these processes of forward-looking innovation. We recommend that you find some sub-trends related to your industry under the framework of the above 10 major trends, and study the possible impact of these sub-trends on your industry.
On the other hand, assess whether the existing product solutions can meet the needs that may arise in the future, and try to develop some products or services that may affect the future.
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