If Samsung is the "leader" to bring OLED flexible screens into the mobile market, then Apple is likely to become the "evangelist" that makes OLED mobile phones popular.
Now, Apple has finally used OLED screens, but the OLED industry may not be able to afford it.
This industry is a bit special: although OLED flexible screens are played "very slippery" by domestic mobile phone manufacturers, but because of the difficulty in producing such panels, the yield is not high, so the shipment and price of OLED mobile phones are also greatly limited. .
In other words, the OLED industry is a market that is completely controlled by technology and materials. Therefore, whoever is at the top is the one who has the greatest “discourse powerâ€. Mobile phone manufacturers are generally “small in the throat†by OLED small panel makers, while OLED small panel manufacturers are holding the device manufacturers of such screens in their hands.
Yes, almost the same (or even higher) position as ATM in the mobile chip industry. The lifeblood of the OLED industry is in the hands of a Japanese “village factory†called Canon Tokki.
It is only a pity that China is basically the one that is led by the nose in this highly technical and lucrative industry.
A Japanese factory that holds the throat of the industry
If Apple wants to find the most advanced and superior OLED flexible display for its next-generation iPhone, it will not be able to ignore the "small factory" in the Japanese village.
If you take a bus to the city of Niigata, a station in Niigata Prefecture (in the north-central part of Honshu Island), except for the large paddy fields on both sides of the road, there are some factories standing in rice. And Canon Tokki is one of the ones surrounded by rice fields.
In such an inconspicuous factory, 343 “artisans†spent nearly 20 years to transform the equipment that produces OLED screens to perfection. At present, the production equipment for making OLED screens on the market is basically from the rural factory of Canon Tokki.
This company of some years was founded in 1967 by the father of Tokki's current president. Although Canon Tokki has never published its own production details and revenue figures, according to two local people in Japan, Tokki’s current annual production capacity is only 10, and this number is still the factory’s efforts to increase production capacity in the past two years. After the results.
In fact, turning Canon Tokki's products into a "machine" is really insulting the importance and significance of this equipment. According to Canon Tokki's official website, the vacuum production line required for each of these devices is more than 100 meters, and the manufacturing process is very complicated.
At present, the only mature process for small and medium-sized OLED technology in the industry is called “evaporation†method (integrating LEDs with screens), but the whole process requires a core device called “evaporation machineâ€. This device can make the screen image sharper and more vivid with a small amount of energy.
In the process of making OLED screens, the role of this machine needs to be carried out throughout: the prototype panel with the size of a large TV screen is driven by a large "mechanical arm" and traversed several factories, and the organic materials are machined through the machine. Continuous evaporation, red, green and blue pixels can gradually precipitate on the surface of this prototype board.
Investment research company Sanford C. Berntein&Co. Alberto Moel, a technical analyst, is very impressed with Tokki's craftsmanship. He described the device as a custom-made premium sports car:
“You have to admit that Tokki is definitely not a production line for producing homogenized products. On the contrary, the machine they produce is like a customized version of a high-performance sports car. It is unique. Now the situation is that everyone suddenly I saw your sports car and wanted to have it."
Indeed, one of the great challenges in producing OLED screens is how to make the pixels evenly and sink into the glass panel according to the designed path, depending on a powerful patent from Canon Tokki – using a camera tracking technology to make the panel completely Aligning the pixel grinders, the error margin is even smaller than a person's red blood cell volume.
For OLED panel manufacturers, this precision is critical. Because a small calculation error can lead to a sudden drop in the yield of the panel, it also means that a lot of money will be wiped out.
As for the LCD screens that are widely used in the production of flat-panel TVs and iPhones, there are always some defects in the products output from the production line and they are eventually abandoned. For making OLED screens with higher difficulty, it is even more difficult to guarantee the yield.
Therefore, with the development of small and medium-sized OLED panels as a new strategy for all panel brands, Canon Tokki has become a key part of the entire OLED industry, mastering the lifeblood of the entire small and medium OLED panel industry.
At present, Canon Tokki has many years of cooperation with OLED screen manufacturers including Samsung and LG, and this advantage has also left the company behind the Japanese vacuum technology group Ulvac and Tokyo Electronics.
Apple's entry
In fact, the invincible Canon Tokki also has a slight concern: even though the capacity of 2016 has doubled, the factory still has a large backlog of unfilled orders. Therefore, you can't guarantee that OLED panel makers such as Samsung can pick up the goods on time, not to mention that these labels also have capacity problems.
Currently, the total cost of waiting for Tokki to produce a machine is very high: $85 million in price and up to two years of production.
Therefore, the potential production bottleneck has caused many people to question whether Apple can come up with an iPhone with an OLED screen next year.
Tokki President Teruhisa Tsugami has repeatedly stated that all employees of Conan Tokki are making every effort to increase production and shorten the time of equipment. Manufacturers, including Samsung, LG, and Sharp, have long queued up to basically take over Tokki's production capacity for the next three years.
But there is no doubt that Apple has prepared for the "reform" of its next mobile phone, and OLED display is one of the important "chapters" and one of Apple's conventional strategies to convince users to replace Apple phones. .
In the 9 years since the birth of the iPhone, from the higher resolution of the screen, fingerprint recognition, to the pressure sensitivity and custom chips, it can be said that the continuous improvement of the detailed functions constitutes a rapid growth history of a successful mobile phone.
A few years ago, the local tycoon tried to configure the iPhone with a more sturdy sapphire crystal glass screen. But when the screen maker simply couldn't make the high-quality products that the iPhone demanded and eventually went bankrupt, Apple could only give up the pursuit of "sturdy."
But you can see the Silicon Valley company's obsession with the screen on Apple's other product - Apple Watch uses scratch-resistant materials.
Now, OLED has become Apple's next big goal.
As one of the richest and most influential companies in the world, the invisible drive of its release also puts this less well-known technology and the production chain behind it in the spotlight. At the same time, OLED screen manufacturers are also gearing up. After all, they are faced with a huge market with an annual sales of more than 200 million iPhones. The profits behind them are absolutely unimaginable.
In fact, this technology was applied to some high-end smartphones a few years ago. For example, you can feel the smoothness and luster of OLED screens on all Samsung high-end phones, and also in Xiaomi and Glory. See this app on the latest flagship machine.
If the LCD screen relies on backlight imaging, then the pixels of the OLED are completely self-illuminating. The advantage is that the body can be made thinner, the TV life becomes longer, and the color contrast is improved.
In addition, OLED screens can also be made of flexible plastics, and hardware manufacturers can use their full imagination to make them into various shapes and be applied to more fields.
Hardware analysts who have researched mobile phone screens have told 36 that OLED screens are not only suitable for smooth areas of mobile phones, but also for marginal areas. Therefore, we can see that domestic smartphone manufacturers are forming their own advantages by increasing the curvature of the screen of the mobile phone and changing the shape to attract users.
In addition to the opportunity, the "exposure" is also the problem of the OLED market.
According to market research institute IHS Markit. The data provided, the market value of small and medium-sized OLED panels will surpass its "peer" for the first time in 2018 - the small and medium-sized liquid crystal display (LCD) market, reaching $18.6 billion.
Undoubtedly, this is definitely a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for upstream companies in the OLED screen production chain. The small and medium-sized OLED screen industry may experience an explosive growth from upstream equipment, raw materials and devices to downstream applications.
In the next two to three years, OLED device manufacturers like Canon Tokki will naturally be "the stars", but at the same time, due to the difficulty in producing OLED screens, OLED screens such as Samsung, LG and Sharp The biggest problem facing producers is not competition, but productivity.
Because of this, Huawei, the domestic mobile phone manufacturer, has repeatedly been reported that its Samsung-led OLED screen supply chain has problems, and mobile phone shipments have also been affected; and Xiaomi has been reported to have similar problems.
In other words, which panel maker can increase production capacity and yield, which one is most likely to stand out in this market.
Nowadays, this market that is already eager to move has finally got the driving force of Apple's mobile phone injection. (There are people who have revealed to the outside world that Apple will release at least one OLED display with the OLED display on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the iPhone. new phone).
Despite the news that Samsung, which has a market share of more than 90%, is trying to become the sole supplier of Apple's OLED screens, the South Korean company may be "less than enough" - its lower OLED screen yield may be Can not meet the surge demand for iPhone.
Therefore, for global OLED screen manufacturers, the opportunity has finally come.
Sharp and Japanese display manufacturer Japan Display have jumped out to announce that they are still testing the OLED screen, but will start producing panels in 2018 as scheduled.
Just this week, Japan Display even got a government-sponsored fund of up to 75 billion yen, and was encouraged to invest the money in the production plan of OLED screens. Thanks to Foxconn's rescue plan earlier this year, Sharp also received 57.4 billion yen for the purchase and improvement of OLED production equipment.
However, there have been reports that the reason why Sharp and Japan Display are so big is that Apple has actively extended the "Olive Branch": the latter requires JDI and Sharp to speed up the development of OLED so that it can keep up with Apple's subsequent hardware terminals. Demand for pulling goods.
Of course, Samsung, which is striving to opt for Apple orders, is also pushing for OLED production. In addition to announcing that capacity will double in 2016, and continue to increase production capacity by 20-30% in 2017, the company recently announced that it will dismantle and transform the L7 TV panel (LCD) production line into an OLED production line and continue to improve the small and medium size. The output of OLED panels.
Regardless of how the screen manufacturers are laid out, Canon Tokki is always at the top of each program.
According to a former Sharp employee, Bloomberg revealed that after Foxconn’s acquisition of Sharp, in an attempt to appease employees, Guo Taiming said at a meeting held by Sharp Display Company that he personally ran to Canon Tokki’s headquarters in Niigata Prefecture and eventually took it. Next order.
This episode is a testament to Canon Tokki's current market position.
But it cannot be said that several other Japanese companies are also playing a key role in the OLED supply chain.
Nippon Printing Co., Ltd. and Toppan Printing Co., Ltd. specialize in the production of vapor deposition masks for OLED screen production, while Nippon Electric Glass Co., Ltd. and Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. provide glass substrates (prototype panels) for OLED manufacturers, while Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. Production of organic mixtures for the production of luminescent materials.
According to analyst Moel, the Japanese supplier network, which has a key “chess†in the entire OLED industry supply chain, is a perfect example of Japan’s “embedded manufacturing ecosystemâ€:
"Imagine why every time an earthquake occurred in Japan, then the entire supply chain was suddenly interrupted?"
In the upstream of this chain, we look forward to the admission of Chinese companies.
However, in this supply chain with explosive potential, Chinese manufacturing plants have basically no place in the middle and upper reaches. why?
In fact, it is not surprising that the answer to this question applies to the problems that China has exposed in the automotive industry, the new energy industry, and various industrial chains over the past few decades: no technology, no materials.
Collectively - there is no core competitive advantage.
In the current OLED industry, the small and medium size market is almost exclusively owned by Samsung. Although some Chinese manufacturers have been entering this market, their technological research and development capabilities are still insufficient.
Manufacturing equipment You want to buy Canon Konni, the luminescent materials you have to rely on Europe and the United States, Japan or South Korea, the patent is basically in the hands of Japan and South Korea. These huge cost plants are simply unbearable, and large manufacturers have to produce OLED mobile phone screens. Can the price of their products be lower than that of Japan and South Korea? Basically impossible.
The reality is that there are very few large Chinese electronics companies involved in the upstream of this production chain. Almost all domestic mobile phone manufacturers are using small and medium-sized OLED panels from Samsung, LG and Sharp.
It is no wonder that there are rumors that Huawei, Vivo and Oppo, which have been dragged down by Samsung's OLED production capacity, are planning to warm up and become self-reliant. These companies are likely to form an alliance with Royce Technology, a startup that specializes in flexible display technology, and make new investments in flexible OLED screens in 2017.
In other words, due to the lagging industrialization process and the impact of patent technology, China must invest a lot of resources in the basic research and development of OLED technology for a long time in the future, and need to carefully consider its own patent layout in this field. .
Domestic mobile phone manufacturers should be clear about themselves, and it has not been delayed once or twice by Samsung and other OLED manufacturers.
While the latter are eagerly awaiting Apple's orders, unless the industry can significantly increase production capacity and increase the number of inbounds, domestic mobile phone manufacturers will still be happy with them while being hacked by OLED manufacturers. Do a good job. (Make sure they won’t delay your delay because of Apple’s order?)
However, the market that is less than demand is not looking forward to the entry of entrepreneurial technology companies?
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